I recently went to a debate at a local American Meteorological Society meeting between two climatologists about the greenhouse effect. Among the interesting points that came out and were agreed on by both the “pro” and “con” are:
- The physics of CO2 trapping heat are well understood and not a matter of disagreement.
- The CO2 content of the atmosphere has increased about 20% over the last 100 years. The global temperature has not increased in a statistically significant amount.
- The computer models that predict significant global warming over the next 50 – 100 years also predict significant global warming over that last 100 years – warming which did not occur.
- The models are unsophisticated in their treatment of clouds.
- The models do not simulate biological interactions with greenhouse warming.
From this, I would conclude:
- The greenhouse effect is far from a sure thing
- If you significantly change the content of the atmosphere’s heat trapping gases (CO2, methane, flourocarbons, etc) something ought to happen, but no one has been able to measure it yet.
- If someone tells you that the sea level will rise x feet in the next 50 years, or that the midwest will turn into a desert, don’t pay any attention – the science is nowhere near being able to predict the effects.
- The usual crowd of doomsayers and eco-politico’s have taken the effect all out of proportion – using projections from unsophisticated models as if they were gospel, while ignoring other evidence.
The earth’s atmosphere and biosphere is a very complex environment with many poorly understood but very powerful feedback loops. The changes in the earth’s atmosphere will be opposed by very powerful negative feedback, which will probably limit them – but we can’t tell if they will result in minimal change, large change, or oscillatory phenomena. There is also a possibility of triggering positive feedback which could accelerate global warming (or even cooling) as a response to these changes.
Finally, lets remember that 10 years ago the same alarmists were warning us about an impending ice age.
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